Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth’s climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly [...]
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Recently, there have been an increasing number of studies using change-point methods to detect artificial or natural discontinuities and regime shifts in climate. However, a major drawback with most of the currently used change-point methods is the [...] Long-range dependence (LRD) and non-Gaussianity are ubiquitous in many natural systems such as ecosystems, biological systems and climate. However, it is not always appreciated that the two phenomena may occur together in natural systems and that [...] A new approach for data-based stochastic parametrization of unresolved scales and processes in numerical weather and climate prediction models is introduced. The subgrid-scale model is conditional on the state of the resolved scales, consisting of a [...] The Earth’s chemical composition far from chemical equilibrium is unique in our Solar System, and this uniqueness has been attributed to the presence of widespread life on the planet. Here, I show how this notion can be quantified using [...] We develop a graphical interpretation of ternary probabilistic forecasts in which forecasts and observations are regarded as points inside a triangle. Within the triangle, we define a continuous colour palette in which hue and colour saturation are [...] We propose a new modelling framework suitable for the description of atmospheric convective systems as a collection of distinct plumes. The literature contains many examples of models for collections of plumes in which strong simplifying assumptions [...] A perennial question in modern weather forecasting and climate prediction is whether to invest resources in more complex numerical models or in larger ensembles of simulations. If this question is to be addressed quantitatively, then information is [...] We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather [...] Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change [...] |
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